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000-637 | Requirements Management with Use Cases - Part 2

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000-637 - Requirements Management with Use Cases - Part 2 - braindump

Vendor IBM
Exam Number 000-637
Exam Name Requirements Management with Use Cases - Part 2
Questions 111 Q & A
Recent Update October 9, 2018
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000-637 exam Dumps Source : Requirements Management with Use Cases - Part 2

Test Code : 000-637
Test Name : Requirements Management with Use Cases - Part 2
Vendor Name : IBM
Q&A : 111 Real Questions

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IBM IBM Requirements Management with

IBM (IBM) publicizes Collaboration with NVIDIA (NVDA) to expand Open source computer studying tools for records Scientists | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

No outcomes found, try new key phrase!news and analysis before you hear about it on CNBC and others. claim your 2-week free trial to StreetInsider premium here. IBM (NYSE: IBM) these days introduced that it plans to include the new RAPIDS™ ...

Google Drops Bid, IBM Protests DoD Cloud Contract | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

Panchenko Vladimir/Shutterstock

The jockeying over a large U.S. defense force cloud contract reached a fever pitch this week as one well-known contender dropped out while an additional filed a criminal protest geared toward heading off a sole-source contract award for cloud functions price billions of dollars.

confronted with an inside insurrection over the possible use of its cloud and AI technologies in battle, Google unexpectedly withdrew this week from competing for the defense branch’s massive Joint commercial enterprise protection Infrastructure contract. The winner-take-all JEDI program may well be worth as lots a $10 billion over 10 years.

one after the other, IBM launched a preemptive strike days earlier than the closing date for submitting bids by becoming a member of Oracle in protesting Pentagon plans to award a sole-supply cloud contract. “JEDI’s basic flaw lies in mandating a single cloud atmosphere for as much as 10 years,” IBM asserted in a blog post explaining its protest.

“definite requirements in the [DoD request for proposals] both replicate one supplier’s inner processes or unnecessarily mandate that certain capabilities be in region with the aid of the bid submission time limit versus when the work would definitely begin,” IBM claimed. Amazon net features (NASDAQ: AMZN), which offers cloud functions to U.S. intelligence businesses, is generally regarded the entrance-runner for the JEDI contract.

The IBM (NYSE: IBM) protest filed this week with the U.S. government Accountability office is a part of an ongoing prison effort via cloud providers to transform JEDI right into a multi-dealer contract award. Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) effectively challenged a $950 million DoD cloud contract awarded ultimate yr to AWS companion REAN Cloud.

whereas Google additionally lacked the federal certifications needed to tackle classified DoD records, widespread opposition to armed forces work among Google engineers induced the company to drop out of the JEDI competition.

Google (NASDAQ: GOOGL), which had also been lobbying the Pentagon for a multi-vendor approach, tested prior this week it would now not compete for the DoD cloud contract. The choice follows a corporation resolution not to resume a contract for a armed forces AI effort known as venture Maven designed  to accelerate DoD’s integration of big statistics and machine researching into its intelligence operations.

enterprise involvement within the AI venture sparked sharp protests within the search large, prompting Google to difficulty a collection of AI concepts precluding use of its AI expertise in weapons.

“We aren't bidding on the JEDI contract because first, we couldn’t be certain that it might align with our AI concepts," a Google spokesman spoke of in an announcement first said with the aid of Bloomberg. "And 2d, we determined that there were parts of the contract that have been out of scope with our latest executive certifications.”

together with AWS, IBM and Oracle, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is among the cloud vendors competing for the JEDI contract. Microsoft announced prior this week that new cloud areas capable of coping with sensitive and secret U.S. records could be accessible early subsequent yr. That certification is required for handling categorized records.

remaining bids for the JEDI contract are due Oct. 12. regardless of the preemptive protests and the possibility of extra after a contract is ultimately awarded, DoD officials advised Congress in can also they plan to keep on with a single-supply award to expedite the cloud rollout. among the explanations were avoiding distinctive contract awards that might require particular person project orders.

“That pace could steer clear of DoD from unexpectedly providing new capabilities and superior effectiveness to the warfighter that business-level cloud computing can permit,” John Gibson II, the Pentagon’s chief administration officer, advised lawmakers.

related

about the author: George Leopold

George Leopold has written about science and technology for more than 30 years, specializing in electronics and aerospace know-how. He prior to now served as govt editor of digital Engineering instances. Leopold is the author of "Calculated risk: The Supersonic lifestyles and times of Gus Grissom" (Purdue tuition Press, 2016).


a whole lot of leading world companies install IBM Cloud deepest | killexams.com Real Questions and Pass4sure dumps

to satisfy turning out to be demand, IBM advances on-prem private cloud with new Watson AI capabilities

ARMONK, manhattan, Oct. eleven, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- IBM (NYSE: IBM) has announced that in below 365 days since the unlock of IBM Cloud inner most – an open supply expertise that brings cloud capabilities to companies operating on-premises IT techniques – a whole bunch of leading firms international have grew to become to the platform to help modernize their operations. They consist of New Zealand Police, China's Fuyao group, Japan's Aflac insurance, Turkey's credit bureau Kredi Kayıt Bürosu and Brazil's constancy country wide assistance functions.

constructing on this momentum, IBM is asserting a slate of recent advanced facets for the on-premises private cloud platform, together with the combination of effective AI capabilities akin to IBM Watson Assistant and IBM Watson Speech-to-textual content, in addition to assist for further public clouds, together with the IBM Cloud. The updates provide purchasers with much more alternative and adaptability for their IT journeys, and, for the first time, carry the vigor of IBM's Watson AI at the back of the business firewall.

IBM is releasing particulars of over a dozen groups that are using transformation with IBM Cloud deepest, together with:

  • New Zealand Police(NZP) is the use of the latest technologies to radically change its operations and increase its capability to tackle crime and hold the community protected. NZP is exploring how IBM Cloud private and Kubernetes containers can help to modernize its current systems as well as instantly launch new capabilities equivalent to a cell based mostly communications gadget for its officers.
  • Fuyao community is China's greatest and most superior company of automobile glass imparting Audi, Bentley, common Motors, Toyota and different top vehicle makers. to meet turning out to be demand, Fuyao has launched into a wise Manufacturing initiative and is using IBM Cloud inner most to aid integrate the management of enterprise functions throughout its international manufacturing and enterprise operations, making certain the free circulate of suggestions throughout the company.
  • Aflac coverage, Aflac insurance, a leading provider of scientific and cancer coverage providing insurance policy to 1 in four households in Japan, has signed an agreement with IBM to aid simplify and automate its IT infrastructure. With IBM Cloud inner most, Aflac plans to raise the efficiency of its operations and velocity up the building of recent products and functions.
  • Kredi Kayıt Bürosu (KKB) gives the countrywide cloud infrastructure for Turkey's finance business. last 12 months KKB established a brand new records middle in Ankara and is now the use of IBM cloud inner most to help consolidate and localize the banking methods of over a hundred and fifty participants including banks and different financial features organizations. With IBM Cloud inner most, KKB is capable of pressure innovation across its fiscal features ecosystem while assembly the high standards for information security and privateness.
  • Brazil'sFidelity country wide assistance capabilities (FIS), a world chief in payment processing solutions for the economic industry, has adopted IBM Cloud deepest to help streamline bank card chargebacks for its Brazilian operations. IBM Cloud private is helping FIS to orchestrate the quite a few IT programs concerned in reconciling and checking of transaction chargebacks while assembly the stringent regulatory necessities of the industry and helping to evade fraud.
  • "The cloud has advanced in a extremely short time from being a way to reduce prices to a platform for enterprise transformation and innovation," pointed out Robin Hernandez, Director, IBM private Cloud offering management. "Our IBM Cloud inner most affords purchasers a transition to cloud that's designed to permit them to preserve their on-premises systems on which they nonetheless rely for a lot of mission-crucial purposes and sensitive data units."

    inserting AI inside the EnterpriseToday IBM is advancing IBM Cloud inner most even additional, announcing main enhancements to the platform, starting from AI capabilities to further public cloud assist. beginning these days, IBM Watson Speech-to-textual content is now attainable with the brand new IBM Cloud inner most version 3.1, making it the first time the device is purchasable in an on-premises ambiance. With Watson Speech-to-textual content, clients can instantly transcribe and analyze audio from seven distinct languages.

    moreover, IBM Watson Assistant is now purchasable on IBM Cloud deepest. The Watson Assistant platform helps builders and non-technical clients to create conversational AI options, from simple chatbots to complex enterprise grade options for customer provider and extra.

    IBM also introduced today that IBM Cloud inner most is now obtainable on the IBM Public Cloud, to assist customers to simply stream their commercial enterprise workloads from on-premises methods to the general public cloud in order to create hybrid cloud environments.

    client quote"IBM Cloud deepest is helping us to set up an conclusion-to-conclusion digital platform with a view to underpin a smarter, more agile, and greater bendy company operating constitution," said Mr. Lebing Xia, vp and CIO of the Fuyao community. "And by means of enabling us to hook up with other cloud-based functions like AI, Blockchain and IoT, we could be able to get even more business value from the cloud."

    Analyst quoteAccording to IDC's international Quarterly 2Q18 Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker, September 2018, total global spending on cloud IT infrastructure is anticipated to total $sixty two.2 billion in 2018 with 12 months-over-year boom of 31.1%. whereas public cloud datacenters will account for the majority of this spending, on-premises private clouds will account for nearly 20% of the overall cloud IT infrastructure market, starting to be at 19.3% year over year in 2018. "businesses have a range of enterprise and IT wants some of which can be smartly served by using public cloud offerings and a few which aren't," pointed out Natalya Yezhkova, analysis Director, IDC. "On-premises private cloud is an impressive option for established businesses that are searching for a gradual approach for remodeling their organization whereas preserving manage of their IT infrastructure."

    About IBM CloudWith $18.5B in annual cloud income, IBM is the international chief in business cloud with a platform designed to fulfill the evolving wants of company and society. moving past productiveness and value improvements, the IBM Cloud is tuned for the AI and information demands that are driving proper differentiation in modern-day commercial enterprise. IBM's deepest, public and hybrid choices provide the international scale businesses need to support innovation throughout industries.

    developed on open source frameworks Docker containers and Cloud Foundry, and managed with the Kubernetes container architecture, IBM Cloud private permits corporations to advance cloud-native applications and also modernize on-premises purposes with a purpose to install them in either private cloud settings or the public cloud of their alternative.

    Media contacts:Jonathan BattyIBM Media relations (Europe)jjbatty@ibm.com

    Michael ZimmermanIBM Media members of the family (US)mrzimmerman@us.ibm.com

    Notes for journalists and editorsExamples of different leading global agencies reworking with IBM Cloud inner most:

    CNH Industrial, ItalyCNH Industrial, a leader in the capital goods sector operating in the agricultural and building equipment, industrial motors, specialty motors and powertrain segments, has signed a multi-year cloud contract with IBM. through the deal it is going to use IBM Cloud private and Watson synthetic Intelligence to transform its business techniques - from manufacturing to give chain, income & advertising and financial services. IBM Cloud inner most will aid CNH Industrial to optimize its management of business purposes while still benefitting from the protection of control of its own on-premises infrastructure. The agility and suppleness of ICP has the lengthy-term abilities of generating enhanced efficiencies in software development and will permit quicker time to market for new inventive customer services.

    Klirinski Interbankarski Sistemi ad Skopje (KIBS), MacedoniaKlirinski Interbankarski Sistemi ad Skopje (KIBS), a Macedonia-based payment system operator owned by 12 banks is working with IBM to radically change payment clearing processes and help faster the combination of Macedonia's banking equipment with the eu. With IBM Cloud private KIBS can be capable of consolidate and transform their current substances right into a "digital manufacturing facility" capable of growing and working contemporary cloud-native functions on the fly. it is hoped that this transformation will in the reduction of time to market for brand spanking new digital items from one-and-a-half years to just a few months, whereas optimising working expenses and helping KIBS' compliance activities regarding stringent banking regulations.

    Sentient.io, SingaporeSentient.io, one among Singapore's leading artificial Intelligence organizations, is working with IBM to carry on its mission to increase established existence by using making human and desktop interactions more natural and pervasive.Sentient.io has chosen the IBM Cloud deepest as a platform to host Singapore's first AI-as-a-service (AaaS) platform to permit its customers to radically change and automate their corporations with AI capabilities akin to belief, knowing, self-studying and issue-solving. using IBM Cloud deepest, Sentient.io will support government and enterprise customers to satisfy strict records protection and privateness necessities, modernize existing applications by relocating them to the cloud, and quite simply control the lifecycle of their digital property.

    Ilmarinen, FinlandIlmarinen, the largest private insurer in Finland answerable for the pensions of over 1.1 million conclude citizens and greater than EUR forty five billion in investment assets, has shifted functions to IBM Cloud deepest to allow it to increase new digital features whereas maximizing its present IT infrastructure. by means of putting its utility construction pipeline onto IBM Cloud private, Ilmarinen is in a position to vastly speed up building cycles and reduce infrastructure prices, reducing the whole software release time from days to minutes. this is notably critical with multiplied pressure on the realm's pension programs because of an growing old inhabitants.

    Techniker Krankenkasse (TK), GermanyGermany's largest statutory health insurance fund Techniker Krankenkasse (TK) is the use of IBM Cloud private for a brand new carrier called TK-safe which provides clients with their health insurance records by means of their smartphone - inspite of time and location. IBM is already offering information as-a-service to TK-secure's at ease records vault which incorporates the encrypted fitness records of TK's coverage consumers throughout Germany. via an open provider platform, TK-protected is capable of directly and easily boost and launch new value-introduced functions for insured people, assurance organizations, provider providers and hospitals.

    Mangalore school, IndiaMangalore tuition, certainly one of India's excellent public training associations, will deliver new-age courses in rising technologies via its affiliated faculties and is leveraging the energy of IBM Cloud private to give a standard platform that may also be accessed remotely via any student. IBM Cloud deepest will run on the university's IBM vigour servers as part of a comprehensive answer which additionally comprises QRadar, MaaS360 and Cognos application. The answer can be built-in via Nihon verbal exchange options, an education beginning accomplice of IBM, which is answerable for the beginning of advanced lessons on cybersecurity and large information Analytics and gives excessive-efficiency systems for network and security functions.

    SK Holdings C&C, Ltd., South KoreaSK Holdings C&C, a number one IT features firm and IBM company accomplice in South Korea grew to become to IBM Cloud inner most to at once and simply equipment applications as containers and re-element them with IBM microservices. moreover, the enterprise is leveraging the utility to aid valued clientele modernize their legacy purposes and supply a comfortable platform from which to run enterprise essential utility across both public and personal clouds, in a true multi-cloud structure.

    Five9 Vietnam Corp., VietnamFive9 Vietnam is a fast-growing IT and cloud provider issuer that gives its consumers with every little thing from cell and analytics software construction, to inner most and public cloud features. The company has been the use of IBM Cloud private considering April to design, strengthen, and package purposes as containers for easy deployment on the general public cloud. From there, their clients can tap into IBM microservices, comparable to analytics, AI and blockchain, to extend their performance even additional.

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    Mueller Wants To Flood Russian Collusion Case With 2 Terabytes Of Russian Social Media Content Without Translation | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    5:04 PM 05/16/2018 | Investigative Group

    Richard Pollock | Reporter

    Special Counsel Robert Mueller on Wednesday revealed his office is prepared to flood two terabytes of Russian social media content — without any translation — into the court record to comply with a discovery request by one of the defendants in his collusion case.

    The government’s lead attorney, Jeannie Sclafani Rhee, confirmed her office had compiled two terabytes of Russian-language social media content and confirmed little of it was translated.

    “The government did not translate every single word and doesn’t have to,” she told the court.

    The tactic was denounced by Eric Dubelier, the American attorney retained by Concord Management and Consulting — one of the three Russian companies indicted by Mueller last February as part of a broad indictment against 13 Russian individuals in his Russian collusion case. The defendants are accused of “conspiracy to defraud the United States” for interfering in the 2016 presidential election, the indictment said.

    “We are most concerned with the release of massive amount of social media in Russian,” Dubelier told U.S. District Court Judge Dabney L. Friedrich, a Trump appointee. “They had five weeks to ramp up on discovery. There has been no, no discovery.”

    A terabyte is the equivalent of 1,024 gigabytes of information. Another way to measure the quantity of information is that Mueller’s social media content could fill nearly 1,500 CD-ROMS.

    One of Concord’s chief weapons against Mueller has been the Russian company’s request for discovery — the examination of evidence Mueller has collected concerning the charge of Russian collusion. The defense tactic could be used to embarrass Mueller and the U.S. intelligence community, as reported earlier by The Daily Caller News Foundation.

    Mueller originally filed the indictment as a high profile case to prove Russian collusion to “interfere” with the 2016 election. His only successful case in his investigation into Russian collusion was former Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos’ guilty plea to a single-count indictment.

    Mueller’s case against the Russians was “more theater than prosecution,” said former federal prosecutor Andrew C. McCarthy, in describing the original indictment.

    But Concord, one of the named defendants, hired an American law firm and asked for a “speedy trial” under federal rules. The firm notified the court the Russian company insisted on the right of discovery.

    In a related move, Dubelier filed a motion on May 14 in which he told the court he moved “for an in camera inspection of the legal instructions provided to the grand jury regarding Count One of the Indictment.” He said the information could be used “to determine whether the instructions provided could support a motion to dismiss.”

    Dubelier also denounced Mueller as illegitimate. He said in the filing that Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein “licensed a Special Counsel who for all practical political purposes cannot be fired, to indict a case that has absolutely nothing to do with any links or coordination between any candidate and the Russian Government.”

    “The risk here is acute, that is, a foreign corporation with no presence in the United States is indicted in an unprecedented case of a type never before brought by the DOJ for conspiring to defraud the United States purportedly by not complying with certain regulatory requirements that are unknown even to most Americans,” he continued.

    The case resumes June 15.

    Follow Richard on Twitter

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    A Quantitative Assessment Of Errors From The Use Of Credit Ratings In Credit Portfolio Management - Part 3: Credit Spreads | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    Abstract

    This is the third of three attempts to justify the use of 158-year-old credit ratings in the credit portfolio management process. In part 1 of this series, we showed that the use of historical ratings-based default rates severely overstates credit risk among all rated firms world-wide for the first 4 years. For years 5 through 10, the use of historical default rates dramatically understates credit risk.

    In part 2 of the series, we showed that trying to use ratings as a proxy for modern big data-based default probabilities failed as well, since the 20 ratings grades explained less than 38% of the variation in Kamakura Risk Information Services default probabilities at every maturity tested. In this installment, we change the focus to traded bond spreads in the hope that ratings provide higher explanatory power for spreads and bond valuation. Sadly, we again conclude that analyzing credit portfolio risk and valuation can be done more accurately without ratings than with ratings.

    Introduction

    One of the motivations for this series on credit portfolio management is a frequent question from both institutional and individual investors: "Why should I use default probabilities to management credit risk? Aren't credit ratings enough?" The answer is clearly no if the objective is to predict default. From an academic perspective, Hilscher and Wilson [2016] show that modern "reduced form" default probabilities are much more accurate in predicting default than credit ratings, invented in 1860 and largely unchanged since then. In part 1 of this series, we showed that the common use of historical ratings-based default rates dramatically overstated credit risk for all rated firms world-wide for maturities out to 4 years. For maturities of 5 years and longer, the use of historical default rates vastly understated the default risk among the rated universe of firms. The following graphic shows the degree of credit risk underestimate at a 10-year horizon as of June 22:

    In part 2 of this series, we tried to "fix" ratings by tying them to modern big-data default probabilities from KRIS on a forward-looking basis. We found that at every maturity tested, 20 ratings grades explained less than 38% of the variation in default probabilities at every maturity tested. Here is a summary of the accuracy results for the same calculation as of Friday, June 22:

    Why have ratings performed so poorly in the first two installments of this series? The answer is that the "analytical business model" of ratings, unchanged since 1860, is fundamentally flawed. The design decisions made in 1860 have not been changed in the 158-year history of credit ratings. The key design decisions can be summarized as follows:

    20 ratings grades are enough to explore the credit risk of public firms, no matter how many public firms there are. There is no need for a term structure of credit risk. There is no need to assign an explicit default probability for any time horizon to a ratings grade. Users can do that themselves if they want to do so. There is no need to assign an explicit recovery rate to any ratings grade. Again, users can do that themselves if they want to. There is no need to update ratings frequently. The author notes that a recent study showed that the mean time since the prior ratings change was 815 days among all rated firms world-wide (see van Deventer, July 8, 2013).

    How can rating agencies survive with no change in credit technology over the last 158 years? A Managing Director for one of the two legacy rating agencies summarized the answer nicely in a Chicago credit conference in the fall of 2008 as the credit crisis unfolded: "Our clients prefer stability over accuracy."

    In the current environment, such a statement is not conducive to a long career in credit risk management. The chart below from KRIS shows that the expected 10-year cumulative default risk of all rated firms world-wide is now at 12.93%, just below the 13.33% level that prevailed in September 2008, the month that Lehman, FNMA, FHLMC and AIG all failed.

    There is one last way in which we can try to save the ratings concept: change the focus from default prediction to bond valuation and traded bond credit spreads. Like our first two attempts in part 1 and part 2 of the series, this strategy to save the credit ratings concept is also a failed strategy. We explain why in what follows.

    1. Should we predict spreads to predict bond value or predict bond value first and derive spreads from value?

    For most of the last 50 years, fixed income analysts including the author have focused on explaining movements in credit spreads. Step 2, given the prediction of credit spreads, is to predict bond values from spreads.

    The problem with this strategy, as pointed out by Jarrow and van Deventer [2018], is that it simply doesn't work. This can be illustrated simply with data from the bond market on September 15, 2008 for senior debt from Lehman Brothers Inc. Readers will recall that Lehman CEO Dick Fuld announced on Sunday September 14, 2008 that Lehman would file for bankruptcy the following day, so this data point is one of the few where every rational fixed income analyst would agree on the default probability for any public firm. In this case, for Lehman Brothers, it was 100%. The chart below for KRIS shows the traded bond credit spreads for Lehman on that day:

    Traded bond spreads for Lehman Brothers ranged from 9% to over 400%! Why? Because the credit spread calculation assumes that all payments of coupons and principle will be paid with certainty on the scheduled payment date, an assumption that is false for any issuer with a default probability greater than 0. A look at Lehman traded senior bond prices shows a much more reassuring story when the focus is on price, not credit spreads:

    The average traded price for all Lehman senior debt issues clustered near the average price of 33.80 with a standard deviation of 1.60. The moral of the story is a simple one: it is much easier to model bond prices and derive credit spreads from them than doing the opposite: modeling spreads to derive price. The reason is that the credit spread calculation itself is riddled with model error which introduces noise into credit analysis.

    What does that mean for credit ratings?

    We answer the question in two ways. First, we assess the accuracy of using credit ratings to model credit spreads in the traditional way in Section 2. Second, we assess the accuracy of using credit spreads to model bond net present values (price plus accrued interest) in Section 3.

    2. Model Validation for a Ratings-Based Prediction of Credit Spreads

    Each day the Kamakura Risk Information Services modeling team conducts an analysis of the validity of the use of all primary default models, including credit ratings. This graphic from KRIS shows that the correlation of credit ratings and traded bond spreads in the U.S. corporate bond market on Friday June 22 is quite low:

    Since visual inspection is not enough, we seek to quantify the explanatory power of 20 ratings grades in explaining the traded credit spreads of all senior fixed rate bonds reported by the TRACE system on June 22. To avoid predicting negative traded credit spreads, we model the log of the credit spread using dummy variables for each of the 20 ratings grades. More formally, we used generalized linear methods and a log link function to fit credit spreads. The results are shown in this graph:

    On June 22, ratings explained 53% of the variation in traded credit spreads for 4,579 traded bonds in the U.S. corporate market. The standard deviation of the error in modeling spreads was 125 basis points, a huge "miss." Given the Lehman data above, this result should come as no surprise. We now try to model bond prices instead in the hope of a better result.

    3. Model Validation for a Ratings-Based Prediction of Credit Spreads

    We use the following analysis to maximize the predictive capabilities of ratings "as is," i.e. we don't try to fix obvious flaws in ratings like a lack of maturity structure. On each business day starting on September 1, 2017, for each of the 20 ratings grades we solve for the single credit spread for each of the 20 ratings grades which minimizes the sum of squared pricing errors (on a trade volume-weighted basis) for that rating grade. For example, for all bonds of all BBB+ rated issuers on September 1, we use non-linear least squares to find the constant credit spread C BBB+ that minimizes the pricing errors for bonds with a BBB+ rating. We do the same for bonds with all other ratings. We measure the standard error in predicting bond prices for each day for all ratings.

    As a challenger model, we calculate the goodness of fit to bond prices using KRIS default probabilities augmented with a liquidity factor and recovery rate as explained in Jarrow and van Deventer [2018]. The chart below shows the standard deviation of ratings-based pricing errors (red dots) versus the KRIS default probability-based pricing errors (in blue):

    On every single business day from September 1, 2017 through June 22, 2018, the standard deviation of pricing errors was smaller using KRIS default probabilities than it was using ratings. In short, the KRIS default probabilities are more accurate in predicting bond prices than ratings on every single day.

    A more simplistic question is this: "Bond by bond, day by day, which method is more accurate in predicting bond prices?" The answer is shown in this graphic from Jarrow and van Deventer [2018]:

    In short, using KRIS default probabilities to predict bond prices is more accurate than ratings for 89.2% of more than 70,000 observations over this time period. The win rate using credit spreads as a measure is similar.

    4. Conclusion

    Standard model validation procedures were used to measure the ability of credit ratings to predict bond prices. We focused on prices, not spreads, because of the model risk issues embedded in spreads as revealed by the Lehman Brothers experience. The challenger model was an analysis doing the same calculation using KRIS default probabilities instead of credit ratings. The results are definitive: KRIS default probabilities have a lower standard deviation in fitting traded senior non-call bond prices on every single business day from September 1, 2017 through Friday, June 22, 2018.

    Is there any reason to use credit ratings in credit portfolio management instead of modern big data default probabilities? If accuracy is the foremost concern, the answer is no. If stability is more important than accuracy, using the phrase from 2008, there is one more credit model that is even more stable than ratings and that has a history of thousands of years. Since accuracy is less important than stability in this case, we recommend setting all default probabilities equal to Pi = 3.1415926535897932384626433832795028841971693993751058.

    References

    Hilscher, Jens and Mungo Wilson, " Credit Risk and Credit Ratings: Is One Measure Enough?" Management Science, October 17, 2016.

    Jarrow, Robert, David Lando, and Fan Yu, " Default Risk and Diversification: Theory and Applications," Mathematical Finance, January 2005, pp. 1-26.

    Jarrow, Robert and Donald R. van Deventer, " The Ratings Chernobyl," Kamakura Corporation blog at www.kamakuraco.com, reproduced by the Global Association of Risk Professionals and Riskcenter, March 9, 2009.

    Jarrow, Robert and Donald R. van Deventer, "The Valuation of Corporate Bonds," Kamakura Corporation and Cornell University memorandum, May 1, 2018.

    S&P Global Ratings, "Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2016 Annual Global Corporate Default Study And Rating Transitions," April 13, 2017.

    United States Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations, Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, " Wall Street and the Financial Crisis: Anatomy of a Financial Collapse," April 13, 2011.

    van Deventer, Donald R. " How Stale are Credit Ratings?," Seeking Alpha, July 8, 2013.

    van Deventer, Donald R. "'Point in Time' versus 'Through the Cycle' Credit Ratings: A Distinction without a Difference," Kamakura Corporation blog at Kamakuraco, May 9, 2009.

    van Deventer, Donald R. " A Quantitative Assessment Of Errors From The Use Of Credit Ratings In Credit Portfolio Management, Part 1, Kamakura Corporation blog at Kamakuraco and Seeking Alpha, June 17, 2018.

    Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.


    Chicago trader is accused of stealing $2 million in cryptocurrency in city's first bitcoin fraud case | killexams.com real questions and Pass4sure dumps

    A 24-year-old Chicago trader has been charged with fraud for allegedly stealing $2 million in bitcoin and another cryptocurrency from his employer to cover personal trading losses.

    It is the first criminal prosecution in Chicago involving digital currencies, according to federal prosecutors.

    Joseph Kim appeared in U.S. District Court in Chicago on Friday, flanked by his attorneys, as U.S. Magistrate Judge Daniel G. Martin presided over the brief hearing. Kim, wearing a rumpled blazer and dark pants, was charged with one count of wire fraud. He did not enter a plea.

    Kim was an assistant trader for Consolidated Trading, a Chicago firm that recently formed a group to trade in increasingly popular cryptocurrencies, according to the complaint. From September to November, the complaint claims Kim transferred at least $2 million of the firm’s bitcoin and Litecoin for his personal use, and then made false statements to conceal the theft, until it was ultimately uncovered by Consolidated’s management.

    Kim’s bond was set at $100,000, and he was limited to travel between northern Illinois and Arizona, where he has a residence. He relinquished his passport, and agreed to other restrictions as part of the bond deal, including not communicating with his former co-workers.

    Bitcoin has seen a meteoric rise — and a fair amount of volatility — in the last year as its popularity became more mainstream and the price of a single bitcoin surged from about $1,000 in early 2017 to around $15,000 at year’s end. The price now stands around $10,000. Litecoin is valued at about $220.

    In December, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the CBOE Futures Exchange became the first traditional exchanges to begin trading cryptocurrency futures, lending legitimacy to the digital asset and opening the door for more traditional traders to bet on its future.

    sbomkamp@chicagotribune.com

    Twitter @SamWillTravel



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